The Low Road Express

[Deckard]

Back to those polls - so Obama's heading into the convention with a statistical dead heat (and a Zogby poll putting him 5 points behind McCain). Commentators seem to be lining up to portray any shock at this state of play as arrogance on the part of Obama supporters - we're simply not used to our 'Messiah' being challenged in this way, etc etc.

For me, it's just alarm that any Democractic candidate wouldn't be faring better at this stage of the campaign, given the almost historically low approval ratings for the Bush administration, given McCain's own (almost epic) struggle to win the nomination for his party (and their lukewarm approach to him), given what was thought to be a thirst for change, given a nose-diving economy, given the unpopularity of war in Iraq.... This should have been (should be - sorry, talking in past tense like i've given up hope!) the Dems' term. When you add in the qualities that many acknowledge Obama possesses - rousing, inspiring, relatively youthful and visibly different, with policy positions some of which should appeal to left and right - he should surely be doing considerably better than dead heating right now, shouldn't he?

What do you think about why the American population is responding this way? Is it down to the effectiveness of the Republicans' goin' negative? Is it down to the simplicity (or as Bush liked to say at the last election, the stark certainties) of their own messages?

e.g.1 - new offshore drilling.
McCain is for it. Simple. That's the message.
Obama is for it in some circumstances... but sceptical that it'll really work.

e.g.2 - responding to the question of "when does life begin?"
McCain immediately says: "At the moment of conception".
Obama first says that answering the question is "above my pay-grade", then says he's in favour of legal abortion "not because I'm pro-abortion but because, ultimately, I don't think women make these decisions casually. I think they wrestle with these things in profound ways."

Is this the sort of thing that's costing him? Are the successful US presidential candidates really only the ones who's policy positions fit onto a bumper sticker?

Or, going back to the polls, is this largely fallout from the wrath of Hillary Clinton's supporters? (a WSJ-NBC poll this week indicated that nearly half of her supporters have "yet to embrace Obama"... 21% favour McCain, 27% are undecided or say they'll vote for "someone else.'') I'm pretty sure had her campaign conducted themselves with less desperation and negativity, that Obama would be doing a fair bit better right now. That's not passing the buck or "blaming the woman", it's just a speculative judgment that seems entirely reasonable.