U.S. Presidential Election 2008

[Sean]

Originally Posted by cacophony

it just doesn't jive with the rest of the assertions in the study.

ordinarily i get behind pew's research methods. but this strikes me as total, unadulterated bunk. poor statistics. there is zero chance that 25% of democrats think obama is muslim. zero chance.

Well you're right about that, but that's not what the poll stated. It stated that, specifically, 23% of WHITE democrats who hold NEGATIVE VIEWS of Obama believe he's Muslim. This is a very specific demographic, but also, to me, a notable one.

And it actually does seem to jive with the rest of the study in my opinion. They state in the study that a full 11% of all whites think he's Muslim, period. So if you narrow it down even further, to white democrats who hold unfavorable views of Obama, then it's totally believable that the percentage could double. And frankly - no offense intended here - the results they cite are based on extensive research, while your denial of the results is based on it just sounding like "bunk" to you. That's not to say the Pew study couldn't be wrong, but it certainly wasn't just a number randomly picked out of the air. I'm totally open to any information you may have seen that disproves the Pew results, but in the meantime, while it's a disturbing finding, it also appears to be accurate when you consider all the factors.

[cacophony]

Originally Posted by Sean

It stated that, specifically, 23% of WHITE democrats who hold NEGATIVE VIEWS of Obama believe he's Muslim.

aaaaaah okay. i finally parsed that properly in my head. i thought it was saying that 23% of white americans have the negative view that he's a muslim. but i get now what it is they're getting at.

[BeautifulBurnout]

This is beginning to remind me horribly of what happened to the Left in France at the last two elections. The majority of public opinion wanted Chirac out, (and didn't want Sarkozy in), but the opposition spent so much time squabbling and fragmenting that Chirac got re-elected, then last year Sarkozy replaced him with more of the same.

Well done Hills. With your smears and your dirty tricks and your selfish, self-interested behaviour, you couldn't have done much more to boost McCain other than to publicly announce you supported him. No, wait... that would prolly reduce his popularity.

[King of Snake]

yeah the longer this goes on, the more I'm convinced it's gonna end in yet another disaster for the democrats.
And with Hillary still leading the polls in Penssylvania it looks like she and Obama will continue exchanging blows untill the bitter end, after which we all bette get used to president McCain.

[cacophony]

i don't dislike mccain enough to consider his election a disaster. maybe a disaster for dedicated democrats, who care more about party affiliation than policy. but overall for the nation i don't see a disaster looming up on the horizon.

i've been known to be wrong, though.

[gambit]

I've been on that side of the fence too (that the longer Obama and Clinton exchange blows, the better McCain has the chance to win), but in the back of my mind, I'm beginning to wonder if this might actually be a good thing for the Democrats. For one, more and more people are getting involved in the primary elections because of the drama, and there's a good possibility that will carry over into November. Obama and Clinton are continuing to get attention while McCain just hangs out in the back corner where no one notices him.

Obviously things will be different after a nominee is chosen, and I could be very very wrong. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Sean]

I'm going out on a limb to make a prediction. This is really how I see it all unfolding:

Hillary will win Pennsylvania, but Obama will close the gap there enough to continue perceptions that Hillary simply can't come back enough to win. The next major event will be Obama winning North Carolina by a significant margin, which will solidify his lead. The rest of the primaries will still play out, but once all the voters have had their say, the superdelegates will predominantly choose to support Obama, wrapping up the nomination some time in June.

Unless Hillary wants to commit complete, unrecoverable political suicide, she will also voice support for Obama, which will go a long way towards stemming the threat of party defection we've been hearing about primarily from her supporters.

Once the Democratic support is largely unified behind Obama and the campaign focus shifts to Obama/McCain debates and such, the tide will turn in Obama's favor overall and ultimately, he will win the Presidency.

But like Cacophony, I've been wrong before. A lot. And much of this depends squarely on how Hillary behaves, so there is still a large measure of uncertainty involved.

[Strangelet]

big news. mark penn, chief strategist (read public relations whore) for the clinton campaign has been forced to step down for his representing union-busting companies and courting Columbia into a free trade agreement not unlike NAFTA. You know, that thing the Clintons championed and now she's against?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/07/uselections2008.hillaryclinton
http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20...ation/45306884

Now that it has been learned that Hillary Clinton's chief strategist is lobbying -- hard -- for a free-trade pact that is broadly opposed by labor, environmental and human rights groups, a number of major unions and union groupings have called for Clinton to disassociate herself from Mark Penn.

See I think the whining and begging by democrats around the Daily KOS neck of the woods that Clinton should step down for fear of ruining it for all democrats completely misses the point. It is not Hillary's obligation to step down from her campaign. It is the democratic voter's obligation to make an informed decision. It is also their obligation to stand firm on their values regardless if their super favorite candidate gets to win or not. Of course if demos were ever good at standing firm on their values in the face of pressure we probably wouldn't be in this mess. The fact that Hillary has gotten this far, with so many stunts like the above, that is the real issue.

So as far as I'm concerned I probably will vote for Mccain. George Bush will be known for having poor judgment. And the biggest effect of that poor judgement was who he chose to surround himself with. With this jackass running her show, it shows who's really going to be four more years of Bush.

[Strangelet]

wow. not a great weekend for those crusading for Hillary's truthiness.

she's now the ant-war voter's champion because she made some partisan safe jabs, not against the war fundamentally, but at the way bush was running it before Obama. (which isn't true, btw)



Honestly, what cocktail of meds do you need to be on to visualize it wasn't a vote for war, but authorization for war? It sounds like the end all high.

not to mention the uninsured pregnant dying pizza girl anecdote she likes not being true either.


I mean, nobody's perfect blah blah blah. but maybe if you want to sell people on completely redoing their health care system, you might want to come up with something a little more substantive as part of your campaign schtick. Something that makes people excited about it, not shamed into it.

[Strangelet]

actually I misspoke (as usual) about the whining over at KOS.

This from KOS himself

Of course, the primary calendar is drying up, and most of that "unalloyed good" has run its course. This thing doesn't need to drag out any longer. As I mention in the column, I won't call on Clinton to quit the race because it would be stupid to do so. It's her call to make when she's good and ready to make that call.
But aside from that, it is time for the super delegates to put this thing to bed. We're all itching to take on McCain, so let's get the main show started.

I guess I'm just frustrated that certain elements still can't make up their mind about this primary. But then they would be the undecideds, and not dems proper. So they aren't appropriate targets for a rant against waffling on assumed democratic principles.

It would just be nice for Penn voters to pony up and vote decisively. And not because I think the primary should end for the sake of democrat chances against McCain. I just don't see this choice that difficult to make, as an organized whole, regardless of what candidate. And its been a long time this country has enjoyed the mandate of a candidate winning decisively.