[cacophony]

i wonder how independent the independent vote really is. we're all speculating about whether this selection will really win or lose voters but i'm not sure it makes a huge difference in the end. it seems like most people tend to lean one way or another, and ultimately once people are in the booth i'm not sure they really stray from their initial gut reaction.

think about how low bush's approval rating was in the last election. but when it really came down to it people started saying, "eh, i don't know if we should change horses mid-stream." it wasn't so much the issues or the record of performance.

in the end i think the extreme right-wingers were never really a risk. and for obama the clinton backers were never really a risk. come election day people are going to root for their team the way they always do. i don't think palin is going to make or break this campaign because ultimately the majority of people aren't going to cross party lines once they're sealed in the voting booth. it's going to be, "this isn't my first choice but it's better than voting for that other guy."