U.S. Presidential Election 2008

[Sean]

Okay, here's the thing about Pennsylvania. In my opinion, it won't change anything, no matter how it's spun.

Let's say that Clinton wins as she likely will in Pennsylvania....what's she gonna do, pick up like 10 delegates on Obama? Right now he's up by around 144 total delegates including superdelegates. So losing 10 drops his total to 134. Next up is North Carolina where he currently has a 15.7% lead. That means that out of the 134 pledged delegates there, he could pick up around 20 more, erasing Hillary's gain of 10 and then adding 10 more to his lead putting him up by 154 delegates overall. Beyond that, there are no big delegate states left. So Hillary is done. She can't win unless Obama makes a mistake like coming out saying that white people are the devil and he likes kidnapping and cooking up babies for dinner. Short of that, this nomination race is over.

[gambit]

Originally Posted by Deckard

A South Carolina pastor says he wasn't trying to be political when he posted a sign in front of his church linking Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden.





(And another for the stories about Hillary's regained momentum that will shortly follow tonight)

Well, of course. If someone's last name sounds similar to another person's first name, it must mean something.

[gambit]

Originally Posted by Sean

Okay, here's the thing about Pennsylvania. In my opinion, it won't change anything, no matter how it's spun.

Let's say that Clinton wins as she likely will in Pennsylvania....what's she gonna do, pick up like 10 delegates on Obama? Right now he's up by around 144 total delegates including superdelegates. So losing 10 drops his total to 134. Next up is North Carolina where he currently has a 15.7% lead. That means that out of the 134 pledged delegates there, he could pick up around 20 more, erasing Hillary's gain of 10 and then adding 10 more to his lead putting him up by 154 delegates overall. Beyond that, there are no big delegate states left. So Hillary is done. She can't win unless Obama makes a mistake like coming out saying that white people are the devil and he likes kidnapping and cooking up babies for dinner. Short of that, this nomination race is over.

Yes, and it's been this way for the past month or two, and it will stay this way until the superdelegates put her in her place.

[King of Snake]

well, as was predicted, Clinton seems to have won the state by 10 points, 55% to 45% for Obama.

"Because of you, the tide is turning."

of course, there doesn't really seem to be any more tide to be turned since Pennsylvania was the last big state.
Unless she now suddenly starts winning all the other states with decisive numbers, but as Sean pointed out that's not very likely with Obama well in the lead for N-Carolina.

[Deckard]

yup ...which doubtless she knows, of course.

Some interesting thoughts from another BBC piece...

"One of the things that makes Mrs Clinton so psychologically fascinating is her tendency to portray everthing in terms of conflict and confrontation.

And one of the characteristics that makes her so interesting politically is that she is a much better candidate when things are going badly than when they are going well."

...and on the strategy she's adopting...

"The big question of course, is just what Mrs Clinton's strategy in all this really might be.

Does she think that if things are not settled before the party's summer nominating conference in Denver that she will somehow simply emerge victorious from a knock-em-down, drag-em-out fight on the convention floor?

Or does she believe that it might yet be settled behind closed doors between the party bigwigs who are long term investors in the Clinton brand?

Or is it something cruder? The belief that if you simply hang in there long enough, and the race is close enough, then something might emerge to trip your opponent?

My view is that it is a little of all three, but mainly the last point, the belief that events can trip up even the most sure-footed of candidates."

Obama just needs to watch himself - the Clinton camp have shown themselves to be adept at stunts and traps.

[Strangelet]

Originally Posted by Deckard

Obama just needs to watch himself - the Clinton camp have shown themselves to be adept at stunts and traps.

This "bitter-gate" thing. I think we saw cultural stupidity of historical proportions, folks. 99% of the news pundits I watched either couldn't grasp the truth of it, or just decided to go along with clinton's case that the comments were offensive and elitist. Combined with 99% of Obama surrogates who took a defensive, guilty stance, and Obama's own rambling incoherent rebutttal at the debate. It all added up to Clinton's strategy of combing through obama comments, finding one that could be spinned as a wedge issue for the demographics of the current primary state, and running with it.

So hopefully Obama and his surrogates will be able to respond with more certainty. Because the inability to respond to something so spectacularly stupid just adds to the stupidity.

As it is I can't watch the news these days.

[Sean]

Agreed. The thing that's bugged me about the news coverage on all of this is that there's been very little factual reporting, but tons of editorializing. Every "news" show on CNN is nothing more than a panel of Clinton and Obama supporters simply spouting their own campaign's rhetoric, and the news-people don't call them on any of the spin, half-truths or outright lies they tell.

And some of the same people are saying Hillary's low on money so she'll be in big trouble because she won't be able to get her message out, but she has tons of free opportunities through the "news" to say whatever she wants.

And all that being said, she won Pennsylvania with 55% of the vote and picked up 14 pledged delegates last night. In order to overtake Obama, she needed to win every remaining state with 65% support, especially Pannsylvania. So coming in 10 percentage points shy of what she needed in the largest remaining state means that while she won the battle last night, she looks to have decisively lost the war for the nomination. And once North Carolina comes in as the win it likely will for Obama, the numbers against her will become even more impossible. Add the results of an extremely close race in Indiana where they'll likely split the delegates pretty evenly, and she'll need to win the following, final states with something ridiculous like 85% or more of the popular vote in each.

And Obama got another superdelegate today, the Governor of Oklahoma. So much for turning the tide...

[stimpee]

Americans deserve "a president who doesn't quit" eh? what, even when the numbers are so bloody obvious that its stupid to carry on? Clinton gained 14 votes over Obama. 80 to 66. Big deal. 10 states left i think. Mathematically possible but highly unlikely. lets hope she gets some sense soon. or runs out of money.

[Strangelet]

I think these videos are fairly well done, although too heavy handed towards fox news whereas it seems all news networks are complicit in this political narration.

Anyhoo, this is what the american voting audience is subjected to.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by stimpee

Americans deserve "a president who doesn't quit" eh? what, even when the numbers are so bloody obvious that its stupid to carry on? Clinton gained 14 votes over Obama. 80 to 66. Big deal. 10 states left i think. Mathematically possible but highly unlikely. lets hope she gets some sense soon. or runs out of money.

What I loved about the "President who doesn't quit" quote is that I agree with her. We do deserve a President who doesn't quit. Unfortunately for Hillary though, she simply won't be the next President, so she should really feel free to quit any time she likes.....

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann summed it up pretty well today.

"Hillary Clinton refuses to die. Having been given up for dead after losing Iowa, she rebounded in New Hampshire. Then a string of 11 straight consecutive losses - followed by a win in Ohio and a tie (in delegates) in Texas. Now, she's won Pennsylvania.

Problem is, it doesn't mean anything."