U.S. Presidential Election 2008

[Strangelet]

not to ignore the points you just made, but this just came out, coincidentally enough. I guess others are thinking about the same questions..


http://www.gallup.com/poll/107770/Most-Say-Race-Will-Factor-Their-Presidential-Vote.aspx

So on the one hand, black voters say Obama's race makes no difference to them, and on the other hand, about 9 out of 10 blacks say they will vote for Obama. But the high percentage of the black vote going to Obama is not unusual. Gallup polling estimated that John Kerry received 93% of the black vote in 2004, and Al Gore received 95% in 2000. So it may be that black voters are making the (correct) self-observation that they would be voting for the Democratic candidate regardless of his or her race, meaning that Obama's particular race is not a deciding factor for them.

Whites are even less likely than blacks to say Obama's race would be a factor in their vote. Eighty-eight percent of non-Hispanic whites say his race makes no difference. Six percent of whites say they are less likely to vote for Obama because of his race; 5% say they are more likely to vote for him. There has been discussion this year of a "hidden" race factor in which certain groups of white voters will end up not voting for Obama because he is a black candidate. What these data show is that more than 9 in 10 whites, when asked about Obama's race directly, deny that it will be a negative factor in their vote

that seems like a pretty cut and dry score for non white guilt factor party. (or a white guilt landslide, which seems to be even more unlikely than a luke warm center)

scroll down even further and they ask blacks and whites both if obama's race will reward/penalize his vote count. Both races replied the same. 21 percent thing it will benefit him. 26-68 percent said it will penalize him.

So basically 90 % of voters say race does not affect them personally but a around a quarter of the voters think it will affect the choices of everyone else.