Polling information

[cured]

Forget the national polls (they don't mean anything). The state-by-state races are what you should be following if you want to know how close the race is.

http://www.pollster.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Obama ahead in Pennsylvania should make republicans groan over not selecting Tom Ridge.

[Troy McClure]

Another polling gathering site to contribute is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It takes every poll that it can get its hands on, and from there interpolates it into charts, graphs, probability analysis, etc. Really fascinating stuff since I'm a math geek.

The main person that built and maintains this site is actually a Major League Baseball statistical guru at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/.


Jason

[Sean]

I don't trust polling at all this year. We had a layover in Washington DC yesterday, and in the politically themed stores they had, everyone was almost out of Obama pins, shirts, hats, etc, while the racks were still chock-full of McCain stuff. I tend to find that more compelling than polls these days....

[cured]

Go to Alabama and you might find something else. Anywhere there are lots of high paying jobs, you'll see they are typically blue states.

[cacophony]

Originally Posted by cured

Go to Alabama and you might find something else.

nope.

that doesn't mean the south is going to go blue. it just means republican support for mccain is pretty weak and democratic support for obama is pretty strong. i've commented before that there are signs for obama all over the place, even as you get out into the rural south. and two days ago i saw my very first and only mccain bumper sticker.

doesn't mean the votes are changing. it just speaks to the enthusiasm.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by cacophony

doesn't mean the votes are changing. it just speaks to the enthusiasm.

True that it speaks to enthusiasm, but I personally think it's also important to consider that enthusiasm can generate new interest, while a lack of it is far less likely to. And I think that's where a lot of Independents play into it.

[cured]

The elderly don't buy bumper stickers. The youth of this country has largely embraced Obama, and that sells t-shirts and concert tickets, but the biggest voting bloc doesn't buy into all of that. While Obama supporters are much more enthusiastic, those guys and gals HAVE TO back it up and go out there and vote, even if it means waiting in an 8 hour line and even if they think Obama has won the state so their vote doesn't matter.

[Troy McClure]

Don't most states have early voting? In Arizona, you can request a early ballot, for any reason, and we can drop it off at our polling place if we don't want to mail it back in. It's very easy, can take our time at home, and eliminates any excuse to not vote.

Jason

[cured]

I think every state has early/absentee voting.

I like showing up to the polls, though. I like to see if I can dissuade anyone from their choice in the 20 minutes I'm in line with them