Well, Jumbo is the first song, as you can see from the walk-on here:
BTW, does anyone know what the pre-recorded walk-on music is? It sounds a bit like Stoffer to me. They're even in the same key.
ASW confirmed played too:
So, that would seem to sway it in the direction of setlist.fm being correct. However, that seems like an awful lot of songs for a 1.5 hour set.
Edit: Actually, I did some back of the napkin calculations, and if you drop Soniamode (which was questionable in the setlist.fm comments), then it's a little over 90 minutes.