Quote:
Originally Posted by Strangelet
yes and no. would sub prime and toxic derivative mortgages have burst? Yes. Would the federal government be forced to push itself into insolvency and lower global credit rating with a weaker dollar with stimulus spending? No. Not with the surplus budget Bush enjoyed.
Of course conservatives don't like to make a correlation between the economy and military spending deficits. They act like the money for Iraq and Afghanistan came straight from Jesus.
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Spot on, there. I argue with a staunch conservative over on a private board with friends and I have pointed out numerous times there that the Tea Party and their ilk cannot have a serious discussion about fiscal policy unless they are also willing to examine the effect defense spending has on the budget.
When Obama had his healthcare debate-tour-thing some months back, there was only one Republican who had a grasp of reality and he pounced on Obama pretty hard (Obama had demolished the GOP in their own forum leading up to that). Paul Ryan, R-Wis, had some very sobering things to say back then about healthcare. He also had some things to say about the fiscal crisis going forward, suggesting there would have to be cuts all over the place. The GOP decided they should champion Ryan's intelligence and fiscal conservative principles but none of them, apart from maybe Ron Paul, were in any way about to endorse his proposals for making benefit cuts as a nice portion of that came from social security.
I think Obama has been really good on the foreign policy front, in some ways, and too much like his predecessor in others. But I think his presidency as a whole will be decided on only two factors: the state of unemployment and the economy come voting time. His biggest test is coming in next year's budget cycle, when discretionary spending is supposedly going to be frozen.
Much of 2012 also has to do with who ends up running for the GOP. I don't think Sarah Palin is dumb enough to do it. The GOP machine must have people telling her she can do much more help being the peanut gallery, lobbing potshots from the safety of Fox News and not on a campaign trail. So who will it be? As far as I can tell, the GOP is in worse credit shape than the government is, having added bankrupt fiscal ideas to a socially radical agenda. If they are dumb enough to nominate someone who appeals to the fringe right AND if there is sustainable growth in the economy AND if "real" unemployment drops to under 10%, Obama wins in a landslide.