Quote:
Originally Posted by cacophony
i wonder how independent the independent vote really is. we're all speculating about whether this selection will really win or lose voters but i'm not sure it makes a huge difference in the end. it seems like most people tend to lean one way or another, and ultimately once people are in the booth i'm not sure they really stray from their initial gut reaction.
think about how low bush's approval rating was in the last election. but when it really came down to it people started saying, "eh, i don't know if we should change horses mid-stream." it wasn't so much the issues or the record of performance.
in the end i think the extreme right-wingers were never really a risk. and for obama the clinton backers were never really a risk. come election day people are going to root for their team the way they always do. i don't think palin is going to make or break this campaign because ultimately the majority of people aren't going to cross party lines once they're sealed in the voting booth. it's going to be, "this isn't my first choice but it's better than voting for that other guy."
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i agree, like, 7000% with his post. people are already basically in their slots by now, though i get the impression it took much longer than usual. still, things are set, and the only danger with this is that mccain might have actually pissed a few people off with this stunt. but the only thing swinging anyone at this point are the major embarassments that managers point out to days, months, or several years after the election and say "thats what started to/finally/outright killed it." losing candidates commonly have that moment where they reach a certain pinnacle of goofiness and do something that makes the well-maybe-i-would vote swing towards their base instinct.
if this happens to obama we might see it in the debates. if mccain loses (something i still think is an 80% certainty) it will be the palin pick.